Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Bohai Ferry Group Co., Ltd. (603167.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.75 - $10.89$8.61
Multi-Stage$7.79 - $8.51$8.14
Blended Fair Value$8.38
Current Price$9.42
Upside-11.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.29%18.10%0.810.160.200.180.480.650.460.280.180.22
YoY Growth--397.25%-17.67%10.54%-63.00%-26.31%42.79%61.51%56.25%-16.57%42.32%
Dividend Yield--9.54%1.83%2.69%2.35%5.55%8.36%4.30%2.74%1.67%2.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)288.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)184.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)57.7836.1121.67
Cash Retained (M)184.70184.70184.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-57.78-36.11-21.67
(=) Excess Retained (M)126.92148.59163.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)473.38473.38473.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Fair Value$6.75$8.61$10.89
Upside / Downside-28.39%-8.56%15.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)288.89298.41308.24318.39328.87339.70349.89
Payout Ratio36.07%46.85%57.64%68.43%79.21%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.19139.81177.67217.86260.51305.73323.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.70%9.70%9.70%
Growth Rate2.29%3.29%4.29%
Year 1 PV (M)126.22127.45128.69
Year 2 PV (M)144.80147.64150.52
Year 3 PV (M)160.29165.04169.88
Year 4 PV (M)173.04179.90186.97
Year 5 PV (M)183.33192.47201.97
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,897.903,042.343,192.49
Equity Value (M)3,685.583,854.864,030.52
Shares Outstanding (M)473.38473.38473.38
Fair Value$7.79$8.14$8.51
Upside / Downside-17.35%-13.55%-9.61%

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