DDM Analysis: 601872.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.60 - $89.02	$34.36
Multi-Stage	$12.37 - $13.50	$12.93
Blended Fair Value	$23.64
Current Price	$8.88
Upside	166.26%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.73%	39.04%	0.49	0.35	0.21	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.11	0.14	0.08	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	39.80%	67.25%	28.07%	6.04%	-4.93%	44.61%	-21.10%	85.06%	87.89%	125.52%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.52%	4.40%	2.99%	3.47%	3.55%	3.05%	2.70%	4.59%	1.70%	0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,038.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,966.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,071.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,007.63	629.77	377.86
Cash Retained (M)	2,071.62	2,071.62	2,071.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,007.63	-629.77	-377.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,063.99	1,441.85	1,693.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,035.12	8,035.12	8,035.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.37	0.37	0.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.55	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.60	$34.36	$89.02
Upside / Downside	120.69%	286.96%	902.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,038.16	5,365.64	5,714.40	6,085.84	6,481.42	6,902.71	7,109.79
Payout Ratio	58.88%	65.11%	71.33%	77.55%	83.78%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,966.54	3,493.31	4,076.02	4,719.72	5,429.89	6,212.44	6,576.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.20%	8.20%	8.20%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,198.24	3,228.55	3,258.87
Year 2 PV (M)	3,416.52	3,481.59	3,547.28
Year 3 PV (M)	3,621.92	3,725.89	3,831.83
Year 4 PV (M)	3,814.93	3,961.64	4,112.55
Year 5 PV (M)	3,996.06	4,189.07	4,389.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	81,344.69	85,273.67	89,353.02
Equity Value (M)	99,392.35	103,860.41	108,493.01
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,035.12	8,035.12	8,035.12
Fair Value	$12.37	$12.93	$13.50
Upside / Downside	39.30%	45.56%	52.05%

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China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (601872.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener