Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Qilu Bank Co., Ltd. (601665.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.26 - $171.15$160.39
Multi-Stage$34.26 - $37.54$35.87
Blended Fair Value$98.13
Current Price$5.74
Upside1,609.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.47%21.73%0.320.260.280.270.200.280.340.210.170.06
YoY Growth--20.65%-7.81%6.82%34.10%-29.09%-18.78%61.21%24.15%177.61%40.12%
Dividend Yield--5.20%5.88%6.96%5.09%2.56%3.61%4.45%2.76%2.22%0.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,507.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,584.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,922.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,101.49688.43413.06
Cash Retained (M)3,922.513,922.513,922.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,101.49-688.43-413.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,821.023,234.083,509.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,399.746,399.746,399.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.510.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.690.750.80
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$145.26$160.39$171.15
Upside / Downside2,430.74%2,694.24%2,881.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,507.445,865.426,246.686,652.717,085.147,545.677,772.04
Payout Ratio28.78%41.02%53.27%65.51%77.76%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,584.932,406.143,327.404,358.275,509.096,791.107,189.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.60%5.60%5.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,257.252,278.642,300.04
Year 2 PV (M)2,928.352,984.133,040.43
Year 3 PV (M)3,598.253,701.543,806.79
Year 4 PV (M)4,266.944,431.034,599.81
Year 5 PV (M)4,934.425,172.755,420.21
PV of Terminal Value (M)201,288.30211,010.60221,104.99
Equity Value (M)219,273.50229,578.70240,272.28
Shares Outstanding (M)6,399.746,399.746,399.74
Fair Value$34.26$35.87$37.54
Upside / Downside496.91%524.97%554.08%

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