DDM Analysis: 601398.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$9.58 - $14.62	$11.94
Multi-Stage	$14.40 - $15.79	$15.08
Blended Fair Value	$13.51
Current Price	$7.30
Upside	85.07%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.33%	5.55%	0.51	0.49	0.42	0.38	0.37	0.34	0.33	0.30	0.29	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	2.87%	18.76%	10.99%	2.42%	7.41%	4.93%	9.61%	1.71%	-2.38%	0.79%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.39%	9.35%	9.34%	7.87%	6.62%	6.63%	5.77%	4.87%	6.03%	6.95%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	366,746.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	159,072.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	207,674.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	73,349.20	45,843.25	27,505.95
Cash Retained (M)	207,674.00	207,674.00	207,674.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-73,349.20	-45,843.25	-27,505.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	134,324.80	161,830.75	180,168.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	348,222.20	348,222.20	348,222.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.46	0.52
LTM Dividend per Share	0.46	0.46	0.46
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.39	0.46	0.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.84	0.92	0.97
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Fair Value	$9.58	$11.94	$14.62
Upside / Downside	31.19%	63.53%	100.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	366,746.00	370,115.21	373,515.37	376,946.77	380,409.69	383,904.42	395,421.55
Payout Ratio	43.37%	52.70%	62.02%	71.35%	80.67%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	159,072.00	195,047.42	231,670.42	268,949.84	306,894.67	345,513.98	365,764.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.71%	8.71%	8.71%
Growth Rate	-0.08%	0.92%	1.92%
Year 1 PV (M)	177,643.59	179,421.47	181,199.35
Year 2 PV (M)	192,171.61	196,037.42	199,941.72
Year 3 PV (M)	203,188.57	209,350.44	215,635.65
Year 4 PV (M)	211,167.29	219,748.61	228,588.85
Year 5 PV (M)	216,527.09	227,581.32	239,082.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)	4,014,975.58	4,219,949.71	4,433,211.19
Equity Value (M)	5,015,673.72	5,252,088.97	5,497,659.26
Shares Outstanding (M)	348,222.20	348,222.20	348,222.20
Fair Value	$14.40	$15.08	$15.79
Upside / Downside	97.31%	106.61%	116.27%

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Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (601398.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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