Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd. (601298.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.16 - $31.13$21.28
Multi-Stage$11.69 - $12.74$12.20
Blended Fair Value$16.74
Current Price$8.38
Upside99.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.43%12.20%0.510.290.260.270.200.410.030.150.110.07
YoY Growth--75.73%13.07%-4.22%33.65%-51.18%1,161.08%-78.91%38.21%54.63%-55.21%
Dividend Yield--5.18%3.95%4.03%4.81%2.86%7.05%0.31%2.32%1.68%1.09%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,483.91
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,690.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,793.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,096.78685.49411.29
Cash Retained (M)2,793.832,793.832,793.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,096.78-685.49-411.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,697.052,108.352,382.54
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,504.056,504.056,504.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.37
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.320.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate10.19%10.19%10.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.16$21.28$31.13
Upside / Downside80.95%153.88%271.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,483.915,840.366,219.996,624.297,054.877,513.437,738.83
Payout Ratio49.05%57.24%65.43%73.62%81.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,690.083,343.214,069.894,876.915,771.646,762.097,158.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.19%10.19%10.19%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,005.473,033.963,062.45
Year 2 PV (M)3,289.123,351.773,415.01
Year 3 PV (M)3,543.163,644.873,748.51
Year 4 PV (M)3,769.593,914.564,063.67
Year 5 PV (M)3,970.314,162.084,361.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,431.6561,253.9264,184.21
Equity Value (M)76,009.3079,361.1582,835.02
Shares Outstanding (M)6,504.056,504.056,504.05
Fair Value$11.69$12.20$12.74
Upside / Downside39.46%45.61%51.98%

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