DDM Analysis: 601088.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$127.66 - $567.55	$299.94
Multi-Stage	$77.00 - $84.15	$80.51
Blended Fair Value	$190.23
Current Price	$40.54
Upside	369.23%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.73%	9.51%	2.26	2.55	2.69	1.81	1.39	0.88	0.91	0.46	0.32	0.74
YoY Growth	-	-	-11.37%	-5.11%	48.47%	30.33%	57.64%	-3.30%	97.84%	43.74%	-56.75%	-18.69%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.89%	6.64%	9.54%	6.08%	6.91%	5.42%	4.52%	2.21%	1.65%	5.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	57,004.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	46,370.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10,634.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	11,400.80	7,125.50	4,275.30
Cash Retained (M)	10,634.00	10,634.00	10,634.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-11,400.80	-7,125.50	-4,275.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-766.80	3,508.50	6,358.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	19,871.79	19,871.79	19,871.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.18	0.32
LTM Dividend per Share	2.33	2.33	2.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.04	0.18	0.32
(=) Adjusted Dividend	2.29	2.51	2.65
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	4.95%	5.95%	6.95%
Fair Value	$127.66	$299.94	$567.55
Upside / Downside	214.89%	639.87%	1,299.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	57,004.00	60,393.23	63,983.96	67,788.19	71,818.60	76,088.64	78,371.30
Payout Ratio	81.35%	83.08%	84.81%	86.54%	88.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	46,370.00	50,172.36	54,262.94	58,662.59	63,393.58	68,479.78	72,493.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	4.95%	5.95%	6.95%
Year 1 PV (M)	46,520.43	46,963.71	47,406.99
Year 2 PV (M)	46,651.09	47,544.37	48,446.13
Year 3 PV (M)	46,762.62	48,112.17	49,487.43
Year 4 PV (M)	46,855.67	48,667.26	50,530.88
Year 5 PV (M)	46,930.84	49,209.82	51,576.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,296,428.37	1,359,383.45	1,424,760.82
Equity Value (M)	1,530,149.02	1,599,880.78	1,672,208.74
Shares Outstanding (M)	19,871.79	19,871.79	19,871.79
Fair Value	$77.00	$80.51	$84.15
Upside / Downside	89.94%	98.59%	107.57%

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China Shenhua Energy Company Limited (601088.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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