Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company Limited (601018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.03 - $11.82$7.40
Multi-Stage$3.74 - $4.08$3.90
Blended Fair Value$5.65
Current Price$3.65
Upside54.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.01%4.57%0.110.110.070.070.070.060.080.070.090.11
YoY Growth--1.59%52.70%9.76%-0.61%4.21%-21.76%9.68%-13.67%-19.23%48.20%
Dividend Yield--3.02%3.22%2.01%1.69%1.60%1.81%1.82%1.40%1.58%1.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,665.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,280.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,384.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)933.01583.13349.88
Cash Retained (M)2,384.802,384.802,384.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-933.01-583.13-349.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,451.791,801.672,034.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19,516.3919,516.3919,516.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Fair Value$5.03$7.40$11.82
Upside / Downside37.74%102.64%223.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,665.034,962.685,279.325,616.165,974.506,355.706,546.37
Payout Ratio48.88%57.10%65.33%73.55%81.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,280.232,833.863,448.854,130.784,885.705,720.136,055.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.39%9.39%9.39%
Growth Rate5.38%6.38%7.38%
Year 1 PV (M)2,566.282,590.632,614.98
Year 2 PV (M)2,828.302,882.242,936.68
Year 3 PV (M)3,067.683,155.843,245.68
Year 4 PV (M)3,285.723,412.223,542.35
Year 5 PV (M)3,483.663,652.113,827.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,724.7760,516.1363,414.43
Equity Value (M)72,956.4176,209.1779,581.14
Shares Outstanding (M)19,516.3919,516.3919,516.39
Fair Value$3.74$3.90$4.08
Upside / Downside2.42%6.98%11.72%

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