Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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MeiHua Holdings Group Co.,Ltd (600873.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$170.60 - $263.86$247.28
Multi-Stage$43.54 - $47.66$45.57
Blended Fair Value$146.42
Current Price$10.61
Upside1,280.04%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.38%8.34%0.630.470.490.410.380.440.470.420.200.30
YoY Growth--35.01%-5.52%19.55%9.63%-14.59%-5.36%11.40%114.43%-34.03%4.60%
Dividend Yield--6.09%4.51%5.05%4.55%6.51%10.00%8.73%8.07%2.66%3.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,770.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,749.36
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,020.84
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)754.04471.27282.76
Cash Retained (M)2,020.842,020.842,020.84
(-) Cash Required (M)-754.04-471.27-282.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,266.801,549.561,738.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.602,841.602,841.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.450.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.620.620.62
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.450.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.061.161.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$170.60$247.28$263.86
Upside / Downside1,507.96%2,230.63%2,386.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,770.204,015.264,276.254,554.214,850.235,165.505,320.46
Payout Ratio46.40%55.12%63.84%72.56%81.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,749.362,213.202,729.953,304.533,942.274,648.954,921.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.16%6.16%6.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,065.272,084.852,104.43
Year 2 PV (M)2,377.212,422.492,468.20
Year 3 PV (M)2,685.222,762.302,840.85
Year 4 PV (M)2,989.323,104.283,222.53
Year 5 PV (M)3,289.573,448.453,613.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)110,328.12115,657.01121,189.85
Equity Value (M)123,734.72129,479.40135,439.28
Shares Outstanding (M)2,841.602,841.602,841.60
Fair Value$43.54$45.57$47.66
Upside / Downside310.41%329.46%349.23%

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