DDM Analysis: 600854.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$4.31 - $9.14	$6.12
Multi-Stage	$3.30 - $3.59	$3.44
Blended Fair Value	$4.78
Current Price	$5.18
Upside	-7.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	18.47%	26.85%	0.14	0.11	0.09	0.04	0.04	0.06	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	21.74%	21.05%	150.00%	-5.00%	-33.33%	200.00%	66.23%	-44.66%	41.78%	18.12%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.02%	2.58%	2.03%	0.76%	1.16%	1.57%	0.43%	0.25%	0.27%	0.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	119.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	63.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	55.44

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	23.88	14.92	8.95
Cash Retained (M)	55.44	55.44	55.44
(-) Cash Required (M)	-23.88	-14.92	-8.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)	31.56	40.51	46.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	519.73	519.73	519.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.06	0.08	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.18	0.20	0.21
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$4.31	$6.12	$9.14
Upside / Downside	-16.82%	18.08%	76.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	119.38	127.14	135.40	144.20	153.58	163.56	168.47
Payout Ratio	53.56%	60.85%	68.14%	75.42%	82.71%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	63.94	77.36	92.26	108.77	127.03	147.20	155.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	10.00%	10.00%	10.00%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	69.67	70.33	70.99
Year 2 PV (M)	74.82	76.25	77.69
Year 3 PV (M)	79.44	81.72	84.04
Year 4 PV (M)	83.55	86.76	90.07
Year 5 PV (M)	87.19	91.40	95.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,318.73	1,382.43	1,448.56
Equity Value (M)	1,713.41	1,788.89	1,867.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	519.73	519.73	519.73
Fair Value	$3.30	$3.44	$3.59
Upside / Downside	-36.36%	-33.55%	-30.65%

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Jiangsu chunlan refrigerating equipment stock co.,ltd. (600854.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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