Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Tunnel Engineering Co., Ltd. (600820.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$133.57 - $157.37$147.48
Multi-Stage$94.23 - $103.41$98.74
Blended Fair Value$123.11
Current Price$6.40
Upside1,823.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.93%5.31%0.831.070.760.770.540.570.400.340.460.55
YoY Growth---22.53%41.87%-1.76%41.81%-4.32%40.31%20.00%-26.37%-17.21%11.59%
Dividend Yield--13.34%16.76%13.28%14.54%9.95%10.27%5.36%4.65%4.38%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,551.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)973.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,577.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)510.23318.89191.34
Cash Retained (M)1,577.461,577.461,577.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-510.23-318.89-191.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,067.231,258.561,386.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,224.023,224.023,224.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.630.690.73
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$133.57$147.48$157.37
Upside / Downside1,987.03%2,204.33%2,358.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,551.142,716.972,893.573,081.653,281.963,495.293,600.15
Payout Ratio38.17%48.53%58.90%69.27%79.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)973.691,318.641,704.312,134.562,613.533,145.763,330.13

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,285.991,298.181,310.37
Year 2 PV (M)1,620.981,651.851,683.02
Year 3 PV (M)1,979.932,036.762,094.68
Year 4 PV (M)2,364.192,455.112,548.63
Year 5 PV (M)2,775.202,909.243,048.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)293,785.25307,975.19322,708.21
Equity Value (M)303,811.53318,326.33333,393.31
Shares Outstanding (M)3,224.023,224.023,224.02
Fair Value$94.23$98.74$103.41
Upside / Downside1,372.40%1,442.75%1,515.77%

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