Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

NanJing Pharmaceutical Company Limited (600713.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.43 - $79.45$74.45
Multi-Stage$23.57 - $25.82$24.67
Blended Fair Value$49.56
Current Price$4.94
Upside903.30%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.16%7.86%0.380.440.360.700.270.380.280.280.110.13
YoY Growth---14.14%21.75%-48.35%165.01%-29.57%35.79%0.09%151.72%-17.51%-25.04%
Dividend Yield--7.58%9.54%7.02%12.26%6.15%8.53%5.31%4.89%1.43%1.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)530.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)414.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106.1466.3439.80
Cash Retained (M)115.96115.96115.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-106.14-66.34-39.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.8149.6276.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,328.541,328.541,328.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$67.43$74.45$79.45
Upside / Downside1,265.00%1,407.12%1,508.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)530.72565.21601.95641.08682.75727.13748.94
Payout Ratio78.15%80.52%82.89%85.26%87.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)414.76455.11498.96546.59598.29654.41692.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.80%4.80%4.80%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)430.18434.26438.34
Year 2 PV (M)445.79454.28462.85
Year 3 PV (M)461.59474.84488.34
Year 4 PV (M)477.58495.94514.83
Year 5 PV (M)493.76517.61542.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)29,002.4130,403.2431,857.68
Equity Value (M)31,311.3132,780.1734,304.42
Shares Outstanding (M)1,328.541,328.541,328.54
Fair Value$23.57$24.67$25.82
Upside / Downside377.09%399.47%422.69%

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