DDM Analysis: 600638.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.03 - $3.04	$2.51
Multi-Stage	$4.20 - $4.61	$4.40
Blended Fair Value	$3.45
Current Price	$6.08
Upside	-43.19%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.29%	-5.38%	0.31	0.33	0.42	0.46	0.30	0.67	0.54	0.45	0.37	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	-5.55%	-21.84%	-8.48%	54.86%	-55.79%	23.45%	20.11%	21.86%	-0.22%	-31.06%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.18%	7.30%	7.33%	7.19%	5.22%	12.69%	5.17%	3.71%	2.22%	3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	162.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	148.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)	14.12

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	32.54	20.34	12.20
Cash Retained (M)	14.12	14.12	14.12
(-) Cash Required (M)	-32.54	-20.34	-12.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-18.42	-6.22	1.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	674.21	674.21	674.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.01	0.00
LTM Dividend per Share	0.22	0.22	0.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.03	-0.01	0.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	7.34%	7.34%	7.34%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.03	$2.51	$3.04
Upside / Downside	-66.67%	-58.76%	-49.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	162.69	161.07	159.46	157.86	156.28	154.72	159.36
Payout Ratio	91.32%	91.06%	90.79%	90.53%	90.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	148.57	146.66	144.77	142.91	141.07	139.25	147.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.34%	7.34%	7.34%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	135.26	136.64	138.02
Year 2 PV (M)	123.13	125.66	128.21
Year 3 PV (M)	112.09	115.56	119.10
Year 4 PV (M)	102.05	106.27	110.63
Year 5 PV (M)	92.90	97.73	102.77
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,267.49	2,385.56	2,508.50
Equity Value (M)	2,832.92	2,967.43	3,107.23
Shares Outstanding (M)	674.21	674.21	674.21
Fair Value	$4.20	$4.40	$4.61
Upside / Downside	-30.89%	-27.61%	-24.20%

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Shanghai New Huang Pu Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600638.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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