DDM Analysis: 600585.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.25 - $9.72	$8.52
Multi-Stage	$20.81 - $23.03	$21.90
Blended Fair Value	$15.21
Current Price	$23.22
Upside	-34.50%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-7.85%	7.14%	1.15	1.51	2.43	2.16	2.04	1.73	1.34	0.64	0.63	0.85
YoY Growth	-	-	-24.14%	-37.82%	12.26%	6.00%	18.34%	29.20%	107.49%	1.68%	-25.48%	47.73%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.72%	6.74%	8.60%	5.48%	3.99%	3.13%	3.36%	2.00%	3.05%	5.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	8,802.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	4,562.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,239.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,760.43	1,100.27	660.16
Cash Retained (M)	4,239.82	4,239.82	4,239.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,760.43	-1,100.27	-660.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	2,479.39	3,139.56	3,579.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,189.18	5,189.18	5,189.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.61	0.69
LTM Dividend per Share	0.88	0.88	0.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.48	0.61	0.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.36	1.48	1.57
WACC / Discount Rate	7.02%	7.02%	7.02%
Growth Rate	-9.85%	-8.85%	-7.85%
Fair Value	$7.25	$8.52	$9.72
Upside / Downside	-68.78%	-63.30%	-58.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	8,802.15	8,022.80	7,312.46	6,665.00	6,074.88	5,537.00	5,703.11
Payout Ratio	51.83%	59.47%	67.10%	74.73%	82.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	4,562.33	4,770.81	4,906.60	4,980.94	5,003.66	4,983.30	5,275.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.02%	7.02%	7.02%
Growth Rate	-9.85%	-8.85%	-7.85%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,408.91	4,457.82	4,506.73
Year 2 PV (M)	4,190.45	4,283.93	4,378.45
Year 3 PV (M)	3,931.26	4,063.54	4,198.76
Year 4 PV (M)	3,649.62	3,814.28	3,984.44
Year 5 PV (M)	3,359.05	3,549.55	3,748.58
PV of Terminal Value (M)	88,434.55	93,449.67	98,689.78
Equity Value (M)	107,973.84	113,618.79	119,506.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,189.18	5,189.18	5,189.18
Fair Value	$20.81	$21.90	$23.03
Upside / Downside	-10.39%	-5.70%	-0.82%

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Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited (600585.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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