DDM Analysis: 600559.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.30 - $28.52	$18.96
Multi-Stage	$10.27 - $11.19	$10.72
Blended Fair Value	$14.84
Current Price	$17.20
Upside	-13.72%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	25.44%	34.62%	0.45	0.30	0.16	0.23	0.15	0.15	0.11	0.07	0.06	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	49.44%	95.12%	-32.46%	58.76%	-0.66%	30.84%	57.69%	13.13%	23.72%	117.90%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.48%	1.55%	0.42%	1.15%	0.69%	1.72%	0.76%	0.53%	0.50%	0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	631.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	406.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)	224.86

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	126.23	78.89	47.34
Cash Retained (M)	224.86	224.86	224.86
(-) Cash Required (M)	-126.23	-78.89	-47.34
(=) Excess Retained (M)	98.63	145.97	177.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	902.15	902.15	902.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.16	0.20
LTM Dividend per Share	0.45	0.45	0.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.16	0.20
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.56	0.61	0.65
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$13.30	$18.96	$28.52
Upside / Downside	-22.67%	10.21%	65.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	631.14	672.16	715.86	762.39	811.94	864.72	890.66
Payout Ratio	64.37%	69.50%	74.62%	79.75%	84.87%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	406.28	467.14	534.19	607.99	689.13	778.25	823.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.94%	9.94%	9.94%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	420.92	424.91	428.90
Year 2 PV (M)	433.71	441.97	450.31
Year 3 PV (M)	444.79	457.55	470.56
Year 4 PV (M)	454.26	471.73	489.70
Year 5 PV (M)	462.24	484.57	507.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,051.82	7,392.42	7,746.07
Equity Value (M)	9,267.73	9,673.15	10,093.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	902.15	902.15	902.15
Fair Value	$10.27	$10.72	$11.19
Upside / Downside	-40.27%	-37.66%	-34.95%

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Hebei Hengshui Laobaigan Liquor Co., Ltd. (600559.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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