DDM Analysis: 600519.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,369.78 - $2,946.82	$1,954.44
Multi-Stage	$1,066.40 - $1,160.91	$1,112.81
Blended Fair Value	$1,533.63
Current Price	$1,443.99
Upside	6.21%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	30.37%	31.23%	54.83	25.94	43.64	19.32	17.05	14.56	11.01	6.80	6.23	4.02
YoY Growth	-	-	111.33%	-40.55%	125.91%	13.32%	17.10%	32.18%	62.06%	9.05%	55.09%	11.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.51%	1.51%	2.40%	1.12%	0.85%	1.31%	1.28%	0.99%	1.61%	1.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	90,027.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	64,671.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25,355.66

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18,005.47	11,253.42	6,752.05
Cash Retained (M)	25,355.66	25,355.66	25,355.66
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18,005.47	-11,253.42	-6,752.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7,350.19	14,102.25	18,603.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,254.61	1,254.61	1,254.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	5.86	11.24	14.83
LTM Dividend per Share	51.55	51.55	51.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	5.86	11.24	14.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend	57.41	62.79	66.38
WACC / Discount Rate	9.92%	9.92%	9.92%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$1,369.78	$1,954.44	$2,946.82
Upside / Downside	-5.14%	35.35%	104.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	90,027.34	95,879.12	102,111.26	108,748.49	115,817.14	123,345.26	127,045.62
Payout Ratio	71.84%	75.47%	79.10%	82.73%	86.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	64,671.68	72,358.51	80,771.39	89,972.24	100,027.93	111,010.73	117,517.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.92%	9.92%	9.92%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	65,209.41	65,827.51	66,445.61
Year 2 PV (M)	65,599.25	66,848.73	68,110.00
Year 3 PV (M)	65,852.23	67,742.61	69,668.83
Year 4 PV (M)	65,978.72	68,516.08	71,125.93
Year 5 PV (M)	65,988.50	69,175.77	72,485.02
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,009,279.97	1,058,028.57	1,108,642.89
Equity Value (M)	1,337,908.09	1,396,139.28	1,456,478.28
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,254.61	1,254.61	1,254.61
Fair Value	$1,066.40	$1,112.81	$1,160.91
Upside / Downside	-26.15%	-22.93%	-19.60%

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Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. (600519.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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