Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Keda Industrial Group Co., Ltd. (600499.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.62 - $117.67$43.62
Multi-Stage$15.05 - $16.45$15.74
Blended Fair Value$29.68
Current Price$12.23
Upside142.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.67%13.98%0.410.830.240.160.080.100.130.100.110.12
YoY Growth---50.47%249.31%53.65%97.56%-21.76%-20.15%21.81%-9.27%-4.37%6.72%
Dividend Yield--4.91%7.79%1.65%0.86%0.72%2.42%2.27%1.11%1.45%1.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,452.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)497.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)955.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)290.51181.57108.94
Cash Retained (M)955.39955.39955.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-290.51-181.57-108.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)664.87773.82846.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,875.871,875.871,875.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.620.680.72
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$24.62$43.62$117.67
Upside / Downside101.32%256.64%862.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,452.561,546.981,647.531,754.621,868.671,990.132,049.84
Payout Ratio34.23%45.38%56.54%67.69%78.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)497.17702.05931.461,187.721,473.361,791.121,896.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)643.02649.12655.21
Year 2 PV (M)781.41796.29811.32
Year 3 PV (M)912.62938.82965.51
Year 4 PV (M)1,036.921,076.791,117.81
Year 5 PV (M)1,154.561,210.331,268.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,712.5324,857.8526,047.01
Equity Value (M)28,241.0629,529.2030,865.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,875.871,875.871,875.87
Fair Value$15.05$15.74$16.45
Upside / Downside23.10%28.71%34.54%

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