DDM Analysis: 600425.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.04 - $3.45	$2.65
Multi-Stage	$2.48 - $2.71	$2.59
Blended Fair Value	$2.62
Current Price	$4.43
Upside	-40.81%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	2.66%	-3.48%	0.13	0.14	0.19	0.06	0.08	0.12	0.15	0.16	0.18	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	-7.13%	-26.78%	228.40%	-21.85%	-34.67%	-20.90%	-6.05%	-12.28%	-17.60%	14.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.34%	3.77%	4.89%	1.35%	1.76%	3.22%	2.93%	4.32%	2.56%	4.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	261.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	199.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	61.85

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	52.23	32.65	19.59
Cash Retained (M)	61.85	61.85	61.85
(-) Cash Required (M)	-52.23	-32.65	-19.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9.62	29.21	42.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.18	1,600.18	1,600.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.13	0.14	0.15
WACC / Discount Rate	8.97%	8.97%	8.97%
Growth Rate	2.41%	3.41%	4.41%
Fair Value	$2.04	$2.65	$3.45
Upside / Downside	-54.04%	-40.13%	-22.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	261.17	270.06	279.26	288.77	298.60	308.77	318.03
Payout Ratio	76.32%	79.05%	81.79%	84.53%	87.26%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	199.31	213.49	228.40	244.08	260.57	277.89	294.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.97%	8.97%	8.97%
Growth Rate	2.41%	3.41%	4.41%
Year 1 PV (M)	194.02	195.91	197.81
Year 2 PV (M)	188.64	192.34	196.08
Year 3 PV (M)	183.20	188.62	194.14
Year 4 PV (M)	177.73	184.78	192.03
Year 5 PV (M)	172.26	180.84	189.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,053.10	3,205.11	3,363.12
Equity Value (M)	3,968.95	4,147.60	4,332.93
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.18	1,600.18	1,600.18
Fair Value	$2.48	$2.59	$2.71
Upside / Downside	-44.01%	-41.49%	-38.88%

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Xinjiang Qingsong Building Materials and Chemicals (Group) Co, Ltd. (600425.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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