DDM Analysis: 600415.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$15.08 - $33.20	$21.69
Multi-Stage	$11.37 - $12.40	$11.88
Blended Fair Value	$16.79
Current Price	$18.55
Upside	-9.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	12.69%	7.66%	0.26	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.10	0.14	0.13	0.10	0.09	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	135.70%	-8.76%	0.19%	21.12%	-30.37%	4.94%	28.86%	12.72%	-41.33%	28.75%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.68%	1.24%	2.06%	2.37%	1.96%	4.27%	2.76%	1.95%	1.17%	2.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,202.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,255.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,947.10

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	840.42	525.26	315.16
Cash Retained (M)	1,947.10	1,947.10	1,947.10
(-) Cash Required (M)	-840.42	-525.26	-315.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,106.67	1,421.83	1,631.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5,465.75	5,465.75	5,465.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.26	0.30
LTM Dividend per Share	0.41	0.41	0.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.20	0.26	0.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.62	0.67	0.71
WACC / Discount Rate	9.80%	9.80%	9.80%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$15.08	$21.69	$33.20
Upside / Downside	-18.70%	16.95%	78.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,202.12	4,475.26	4,766.15	5,075.95	5,405.88	5,757.27	5,929.99
Payout Ratio	53.66%	60.93%	68.20%	75.47%	82.73%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,255.02	2,726.82	3,250.43	3,830.59	4,472.44	5,181.54	5,485.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.80%	9.80%	9.80%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,460.07	2,483.39	2,506.71
Year 2 PV (M)	2,645.59	2,695.98	2,746.85
Year 3 PV (M)	2,812.79	2,893.54	2,975.82
Year 4 PV (M)	2,962.83	3,076.77	3,193.97
Year 5 PV (M)	3,096.79	3,246.37	3,401.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	48,192.62	50,520.34	52,937.15
Equity Value (M)	62,170.70	64,916.40	67,762.16
Shares Outstanding (M)	5,465.75	5,465.75	5,465.75
Fair Value	$11.37	$11.88	$12.40
Upside / Downside	-38.68%	-35.97%	-33.17%

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Financial Statements

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Zhejiang China Commodities City Group Co., Ltd. (600415.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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