Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guangxi Wuzhou Communications Co., Ltd. (600368.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.44 - $69.37$64.92
Multi-Stage$37.84 - $42.07$39.91
Blended Fair Value$52.41
Current Price$4.20
Upside1,147.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-9.05%-5.73%0.150.120.210.220.060.250.260.240.290.31
YoY Growth--23.48%-41.78%-1.11%287.78%-77.43%-4.69%8.59%-17.75%-7.35%12.89%
Dividend Yield--3.49%3.97%7.95%7.16%2.17%9.39%9.49%8.81%8.27%11.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)640.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)293.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)346.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)128.0380.0248.01
Cash Retained (M)346.28346.28346.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-128.03-80.02-48.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)218.26266.27298.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,609.391,609.391,609.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.170.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate-7.01%-7.01%-7.01%
Growth Rate-7.73%-6.73%-5.73%
Fair Value$40.44$64.92$69.37
Upside / Downside862.85%1,445.70%1,551.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)640.13597.03556.84519.34484.38451.76465.32
Payout Ratio45.90%54.72%63.54%72.36%81.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)293.85326.72353.83375.81393.22406.59430.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-7.01%-7.01%-7.01%
Growth Rate-7.73%-6.73%-5.73%
Year 1 PV (M)347.57351.34355.10
Year 2 PV (M)400.43409.16417.98
Year 3 PV (M)452.45467.32482.51
Year 4 PV (M)503.63525.82548.73
Year 5 PV (M)553.98584.66616.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)58,644.9361,892.5665,282.51
Equity Value (M)60,902.9864,230.8567,703.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,609.391,609.391,609.39
Fair Value$37.84$39.91$42.07
Upside / Downside801.01%850.24%901.61%

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