Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharmaceutical Holdings Company Limited (600332.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$52.56 - $192.39$87.81
Multi-Stage$34.22 - $37.36$35.76
Blended Fair Value$61.78
Current Price$25.55
Upside141.81%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.57%18.57%1.380.970.920.780.790.640.540.290.320.25
YoY Growth--41.98%6.35%17.73%-1.85%23.36%20.12%87.77%-9.53%27.72%-2.10%
Dividend Yield--5.23%3.34%2.77%2.48%2.85%2.04%1.35%0.94%1.11%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,986.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,509.03
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,477.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)597.31373.32223.99
Cash Retained (M)1,477.541,477.541,477.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-597.31-373.32-223.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)880.221,104.221,253.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,626.001,626.001,626.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.540.680.77
LTM Dividend per Share0.930.930.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.540.680.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.611.70
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$52.56$87.81$192.39
Upside / Downside105.72%243.66%652.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,986.573,180.703,387.443,607.633,842.124,091.864,214.62
Payout Ratio50.53%58.42%66.32%74.21%82.11%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,509.031,858.222,246.432,677.253,154.593,682.683,898.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.45%8.45%8.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,697.361,713.451,729.54
Year 2 PV (M)1,874.321,910.021,946.06
Year 3 PV (M)2,040.412,098.982,158.67
Year 4 PV (M)2,196.072,280.532,367.40
Year 5 PV (M)2,341.762,454.872,572.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)45,492.1147,689.3949,970.77
Equity Value (M)55,642.0358,147.2560,744.74
Shares Outstanding (M)1,626.001,626.001,626.00
Fair Value$34.22$35.76$37.36
Upside / Downside33.93%39.96%46.22%

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