Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Xiamen Xiangyu Co., Ltd. (600057.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.15 - $21.79$16.19
Multi-Stage$11.95 - $13.01$12.47
Blended Fair Value$14.33
Current Price$7.01
Upside104.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.58%13.26%0.821.261.090.810.770.690.470.340.180.22
YoY Growth---34.43%15.53%34.43%4.56%11.98%48.60%36.63%85.15%-14.98%-8.84%
Dividend Yield--14.05%18.77%10.13%9.20%12.04%13.53%9.11%6.25%2.60%3.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,162.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,675.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)487.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)432.49270.30162.18
Cash Retained (M)487.22487.22487.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-432.49-270.30-162.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.73216.92325.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,539.042,539.042,539.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.660.660.66
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.090.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.750.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Fair Value$12.15$16.19$21.79
Upside / Downside73.37%131.02%210.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,162.432,273.222,389.682,512.102,640.802,776.092,859.38
Payout Ratio77.47%79.98%82.48%84.99%87.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,675.211,818.011,971.042,134.982,310.542,498.482,644.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate4.12%5.12%6.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,637.601,653.331,669.05
Year 2 PV (M)1,599.261,630.121,661.29
Year 3 PV (M)1,560.371,605.761,652.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,521.111,580.391,641.39
Year 5 PV (M)1,481.621,554.151,629.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,533.4423,636.4824,782.30
Equity Value (M)30,333.4031,660.2433,035.55
Shares Outstanding (M)2,539.042,539.042,539.04
Fair Value$11.95$12.47$13.01
Upside / Downside70.43%77.88%85.61%

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