Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc. (600025.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.02 - $8.10$6.41
Multi-Stage$8.14 - $8.92$8.52
Blended Fair Value$7.47
Current Price$9.45
Upside-21.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.05%-1.36%0.380.380.420.380.380.400.340.270.360.48
YoY Growth--0.71%-9.06%10.34%-1.14%-5.03%19.82%22.49%-24.49%-23.91%9.03%
Dividend Yield--4.16%4.01%5.89%6.49%6.59%11.05%7.90%7.23%11.63%15.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8,610.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,539.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,070.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,722.151,076.34645.81
Cash Retained (M)2,070.862,070.862,070.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,722.15-1,076.34-645.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)348.71994.511,425.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)18,584.6918,584.6918,584.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.050.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.410.43
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Fair Value$5.02$6.41$8.10
Upside / Downside-46.91%-32.20%-14.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8,610.748,722.608,835.928,950.719,067.009,184.799,460.33
Payout Ratio75.95%78.76%81.57%84.38%87.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,539.886,869.947,207.487,552.627,905.528,266.318,750.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.71%7.71%7.71%
Growth Rate0.30%1.30%2.30%
Year 1 PV (M)6,315.306,378.266,441.23
Year 2 PV (M)6,090.666,212.726,335.99
Year 3 PV (M)5,867.056,044.296,225.07
Year 4 PV (M)5,645.385,873.916,109.31
Year 5 PV (M)5,426.445,702.405,989.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)121,997.08128,201.23134,655.26
Equity Value (M)151,341.91158,412.81165,756.32
Shares Outstanding (M)18,584.6918,584.6918,584.69
Fair Value$8.14$8.52$8.92
Upside / Downside-13.83%-9.80%-5.62%

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