Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

United Radiant Technology Corporation (5315.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.46 - $14.82$12.61
Multi-Stage$16.39 - $17.95$17.16
Blended Fair Value$14.88
Current Price$22.65
Upside-34.28%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-11.31%0.00%0.791.791.290.810.791.450.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---55.56%38.46%58.38%3.24%-45.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.40%9.73%5.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)171.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)85.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)86.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.2621.4112.85
Cash Retained (M)86.2386.2386.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.26-21.41-12.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.9764.8273.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)107.18107.18107.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.68
LTM Dividend per Share0.790.790.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.600.68
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.46$12.61$14.82
Upside / Downside-53.81%-44.31%-34.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)171.31169.60167.90166.22164.56162.91167.80
Payout Ratio49.66%57.73%65.80%73.87%81.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)85.0897.91110.48122.78134.83146.62155.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)88.1389.0389.93
Year 2 PV (M)89.5191.3493.20
Year 3 PV (M)89.5492.3195.13
Year 4 PV (M)88.5092.1795.95
Year 5 PV (M)86.6391.1495.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,314.431,382.881,454.15
Equity Value (M)1,756.731,838.861,924.19
Shares Outstanding (M)107.18107.18107.18
Fair Value$16.39$17.16$17.95
Upside / Downside-27.64%-24.26%-20.74%

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