Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Gas Malaysia Berhad (5209.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.73 - $12.20$8.14
Multi-Stage$10.43 - $11.45$10.93
Blended Fair Value$9.54
Current Price$4.31
Upside121.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS11.09%0.00%0.230.230.190.160.140.140.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--3.41%20.30%20.32%15.13%-1.81%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.36%6.49%5.94%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)407.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)336.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)70.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)81.4150.8830.53
Cash Retained (M)70.7770.7770.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-81.41-50.88-30.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-10.6419.8940.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.001,284.001,284.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.010.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate5.64%5.64%5.64%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Fair Value$5.73$8.14$12.20
Upside / Downside32.87%88.93%183.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)407.05415.84424.81433.98443.35452.92466.51
Payout Ratio82.61%84.09%85.57%87.05%88.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)336.28349.68363.50377.76392.46407.63431.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.64%5.64%5.64%
Growth Rate1.16%2.16%3.16%
Year 1 PV (M)327.78331.02334.26
Year 2 PV (M)319.39325.73332.14
Year 3 PV (M)311.12320.44329.95
Year 4 PV (M)302.99315.15327.67
Year 5 PV (M)294.98309.85325.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,835.0212,431.6713,052.15
Equity Value (M)13,391.2714,033.8614,701.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,284.001,284.001,284.00
Fair Value$10.43$10.93$11.45
Upside / Downside141.98%153.59%165.66%

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