Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kunyue Development Co., Ltd. (5206.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$67.62 - $113.75$87.83
Multi-Stage$141.40 - $155.70$148.41
Blended Fair Value$118.12
Current Price$34.82
Upside239.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS14.29%0.00%1.250.480.461.250.690.640.640.460.460.00
YoY Growth--160.00%4.17%-63.08%82.00%7.14%0.00%40.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.30%1.55%2.85%8.97%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)925.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)202.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)722.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)185.04115.6569.39
Cash Retained (M)722.50722.50722.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-185.04-115.65-69.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)537.46606.85653.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.251.251.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.313.734.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.554.985.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Fair Value$67.62$87.83$113.75
Upside / Downside94.21%152.24%226.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)925.20928.79932.39936.01939.64943.29971.59
Payout Ratio21.91%35.53%49.15%62.76%76.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)202.70329.97458.23587.47717.72848.96898.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.08%6.08%6.08%
Growth Rate-0.61%0.39%1.39%
Year 1 PV (M)307.96311.06314.15
Year 2 PV (M)399.12407.20415.35
Year 3 PV (M)477.56492.12506.97
Year 4 PV (M)544.51566.75589.68
Year 5 PV (M)601.10631.96664.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,650.4121,710.4022,813.48
Equity Value (M)22,980.6624,119.4825,303.70
Shares Outstanding (M)162.52162.52162.52
Fair Value$141.40$148.41$155.70
Upside / Downside306.10%326.22%347.15%

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