Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Chia Chang Co., Ltd (4942.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.26 - $17.80$15.59
Multi-Stage$25.50 - $27.99$26.72
Blended Fair Value$21.16
Current Price$36.30
Upside-41.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-1.65%2.78%2.292.482.982.482.482.481.191.491.251.59
YoY Growth---8.00%-16.67%20.00%0.00%0.00%108.33%-20.00%19.27%-21.63%-8.26%
Dividend Yield--5.66%5.47%7.83%5.19%5.89%8.51%3.00%6.45%4.82%7.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)424.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)284.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.8053.0031.80
Cash Retained (M)139.29139.29139.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.80-53.00-31.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.4886.28107.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)143.27143.27143.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.600.75
LTM Dividend per Share1.991.991.99
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.600.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.372.592.74
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-6.81%-5.81%-4.81%
Fair Value$13.26$15.59$17.80
Upside / Downside-63.48%-57.05%-50.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)424.02399.40376.21354.36333.79314.41323.84
Payout Ratio67.15%71.72%76.29%80.86%85.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)284.74286.45287.01286.54285.16282.97299.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-6.81%-5.81%-4.81%
Year 1 PV (M)258.03260.80263.57
Year 2 PV (M)232.88237.90242.98
Year 3 PV (M)209.42216.24223.20
Year 4 PV (M)187.73195.92204.37
Year 5 PV (M)167.80177.00186.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,597.972,740.382,888.96
Equity Value (M)3,653.833,828.244,009.68
Shares Outstanding (M)143.27143.27143.27
Fair Value$25.50$26.72$27.99
Upside / Downside-29.75%-26.39%-22.90%

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