Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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YAMADA Consulting Group Co.,Ltd. (4792.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,670.49 - $2,879.22$2,191.09
Multi-Stage$1,420.97 - $1,544.62$1,481.71
Blended Fair Value$1,836.40
Current Price$1,860.00
Upside-1.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.07%13.54%80.8765.8150.8039.8037.7945.7545.7436.0331.1127.50
YoY Growth--22.89%29.55%27.64%5.30%-17.38%0.02%26.93%15.84%13.12%21.04%
Dividend Yield--5.00%3.15%3.15%3.63%3.22%3.41%2.22%1.13%1.65%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,389.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,469.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)919.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)477.93298.71179.22
Cash Retained (M)919.89919.89919.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-477.93-298.71-179.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)441.96621.18740.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share23.1432.5238.77
LTM Dividend per Share76.9476.9476.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share23.1432.5238.77
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.08109.46115.71
WACC / Discount Rate11.82%11.82%11.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,670.49$2,191.09$2,879.22
Upside / Downside-10.19%17.80%54.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,389.652,544.982,710.402,886.583,074.213,274.033,372.25
Payout Ratio61.51%67.20%72.90%78.60%84.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,469.761,710.331,975.972,268.912,591.592,946.633,119.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.82%11.82%11.82%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,515.181,529.541,543.90
Year 2 PV (M)1,550.761,580.301,610.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,577.481,622.771,668.91
Year 4 PV (M)1,596.231,657.611,720.75
Year 5 PV (M)1,607.821,685.471,766.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)19,296.9620,229.0121,196.73
Equity Value (M)27,144.4228,304.7029,506.51
Shares Outstanding (M)19.1019.1019.10
Fair Value$1,420.97$1,481.71$1,544.62
Upside / Downside-23.60%-20.34%-16.96%

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