Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

UMW Holdings Berhad (4588.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.41 - $7.80$6.58
Multi-Stage$8.76 - $9.63$9.18
Blended Fair Value$7.88
Current Price$4.76
Upside65.56%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%-7.14%0.150.100.080.120.080.000.100.410.440.50
YoY Growth--48.10%25.07%-35.98%55.19%0.00%-100.00%-75.61%-6.82%-12.00%61.29%
Dividend Yield--3.84%3.03%2.45%5.82%1.41%0.00%1.81%6.46%4.39%4.93%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)887.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)200.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)686.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.47110.9266.55
Cash Retained (M)686.41686.41686.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.47-110.92-66.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)508.94575.49619.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.490.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.610.660.70
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.41$6.58$7.80
Upside / Downside13.68%38.17%63.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)887.33878.45869.67860.97852.36843.84869.15
Payout Ratio22.64%36.11%49.59%63.06%76.53%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)200.92317.25431.23542.90652.30759.45803.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)288.10291.04293.98
Year 2 PV (M)355.64362.94370.30
Year 3 PV (M)406.61419.18432.01
Year 4 PV (M)443.66462.04481.00
Year 5 PV (M)469.08493.51518.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,271.228,701.939,150.39
Equity Value (M)10,234.3110,730.6411,246.62
Shares Outstanding (M)1,168.291,168.291,168.29
Fair Value$8.76$9.18$9.63
Upside / Downside84.03%92.96%102.24%

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