DDM Analysis: 4507.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,684.44 - $4,667.57	$3,533.66
Multi-Stage	$2,606.25 - $2,847.65	$2,724.74
Blended Fair Value	$3,129.20
Current Price	$2,591.50
Upside	20.75%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	9.37%	11.73%	57.23	51.56	42.47	38.95	38.23	36.57	32.48	28.48	25.99	21.41
YoY Growth	-	-	10.99%	21.40%	9.04%	1.90%	4.52%	12.60%	14.05%	9.60%	21.39%	13.42%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.21%	2.48%	2.10%	1.70%	1.98%	1.63%	1.54%	1.50%	1.25%	1.15%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	170,843.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	52,476.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	118,367.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	34,168.60	21,355.38	12,813.23
Cash Retained (M)	118,367.00	118,367.00	118,367.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-34,168.60	-21,355.38	-12,813.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	84,198.40	97,011.63	105,553.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	850.93	850.93	850.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share	98.95	114.01	124.05
LTM Dividend per Share	61.67	61.67	61.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share	98.95	114.01	124.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	160.62	175.68	185.71
WACC / Discount Rate	9.95%	9.95%	9.95%
Growth Rate	3.75%	4.75%	5.75%
Fair Value	$2,684.44	$3,533.66	$4,667.57
Upside / Downside	3.59%	36.36%	80.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	170,843.00	178,952.64	187,447.24	196,345.06	205,665.24	215,427.84	221,890.67
Payout Ratio	30.72%	42.57%	54.43%	66.29%	78.14%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	52,476.00	76,185.04	102,026.69	130,150.01	160,713.37	193,885.05	205,248.87

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.95%	9.95%	9.95%
Growth Rate	3.75%	4.75%	5.75%
Year 1 PV (M)	68,626.41	69,287.89	69,949.37
Year 2 PV (M)	82,786.02	84,389.64	86,008.64
Year 3 PV (M)	95,128.14	97,905.52	100,736.44
Year 4 PV (M)	105,812.86	109,951.88	114,211.15
Year 5 PV (M)	114,987.96	120,637.59	126,507.12
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,750,384.66	1,836,385.10	1,925,733.13
Equity Value (M)	2,217,726.06	2,318,557.62	2,423,145.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	850.93	850.93	850.93
Fair Value	$2,606.25	$2,724.74	$2,847.65
Upside / Downside	0.57%	5.14%	9.88%

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Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (4507.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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