Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

Fundamentals

Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

Valuations

Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

Miscellaneous

Indicators Charts WACC Beta Predictability

Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jarir Marketing Company (4190.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.30 - $25.33$18.14
Multi-Stage$15.07 - $16.44$15.74
Blended Fair Value$16.94
Current Price$13.95
Upside21.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.37%5.97%0.830.830.770.790.770.820.740.620.530.57
YoY Growth--0.61%7.14%-2.53%2.60%-5.52%9.95%19.08%16.90%-6.70%22.74%
Dividend Yield--6.38%5.69%4.72%4.01%4.23%6.38%4.69%4.74%5.26%6.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,014.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,008.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.94126.8476.10
Cash Retained (M)6.706.706.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.94-126.84-76.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)-196.24-120.14-69.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.001,200.001,200.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.10-0.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.840.840.84
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.10-0.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.680.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$13.30$18.14$25.33
Upside / Downside-4.68%30.05%81.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,014.701,056.841,100.741,146.461,194.081,243.681,280.99
Payout Ratio99.34%97.47%95.60%93.74%91.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,008.001,030.131,052.351,074.651,096.981,119.311,184.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.40%8.40%8.40%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)941.17950.29959.41
Year 2 PV (M)878.44895.56912.84
Year 3 PV (M)819.59843.65868.19
Year 4 PV (M)764.37794.44825.39
Year 5 PV (M)712.58747.79784.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,966.2814,656.4915,373.74
Equity Value (M)18,082.4118,888.2319,723.95
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.001,200.001,200.00
Fair Value$15.07$15.74$16.44
Upside / Downside8.02%12.83%17.83%

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