DDM Analysis: 4188.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1,476.50 - $3,136.09	$2,097.36
Multi-Stage	$1,916.03 - $2,101.70	$2,007.11
Blended Fair Value	$2,052.24
Current Price	$851.30
Upside	141.07%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-4.33%	9.95%	32.34	31.32	30.29	27.25	24.21	40.35	37.55	27.60	16.65	14.57
YoY Growth	-	-	3.26%	3.38%	11.17%	12.54%	-39.98%	7.45%	36.04%	65.81%	14.29%	16.27%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.27%	3.41%	3.51%	3.70%	2.59%	6.43%	4.83%	2.98%	1.79%	3.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	114,231.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	45,542.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	68,689.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	22,846.20	14,278.88	8,567.33
Cash Retained (M)	68,689.00	68,689.00	68,689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-22,846.20	-14,278.88	-8,567.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)	45,842.80	54,410.13	60,121.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,407.89	1,407.89	1,407.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	32.56	38.65	42.70
LTM Dividend per Share	32.35	32.35	32.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	32.56	38.65	42.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	64.91	70.99	75.05
WACC / Discount Rate	6.73%	6.73%	6.73%
Growth Rate	2.24%	3.24%	4.24%
Fair Value	$1,476.50	$2,097.36	$3,136.09
Upside / Downside	73.44%	146.37%	268.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	114,231.00	117,932.17	121,753.25	125,698.15	129,770.86	133,975.53	137,994.79
Payout Ratio	39.87%	49.89%	59.92%	69.95%	79.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	45,542.00	58,841.86	72,955.77	87,922.50	103,782.51	120,577.97	127,645.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.73%	6.73%	6.73%
Growth Rate	2.24%	3.24%	4.24%
Year 1 PV (M)	54,595.10	55,129.09	55,663.08
Year 2 PV (M)	62,805.00	64,039.58	65,286.19
Year 3 PV (M)	70,226.63	72,307.49	74,429.06
Year 4 PV (M)	76,911.85	79,965.36	83,108.89
Year 5 PV (M)	82,909.51	87,044.25	91,342.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,350,101.93	2,467,302.85	2,589,133.71
Equity Value (M)	2,697,550.02	2,825,788.63	2,958,963.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,407.89	1,407.89	1,407.89
Fair Value	$1,916.03	$2,007.11	$2,101.70
Upside / Downside	125.07%	135.77%	146.88%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

Mitsubishi Chemical Group Corporation (4188.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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