Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Nayifat Finance Company (4081.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Credit ServicesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.21 - $9.13$7.61
Multi-Stage$11.45 - $12.56$11.99
Blended Fair Value$9.80
Current Price$13.43
Upside-27.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.631.270.820.710.710.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%-50.73%54.53%15.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%4.08%5.01%2.80%2.41%2.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)96.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.2612.047.22
Cash Retained (M)36.2936.2936.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.26-12.04-7.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)17.0324.2529.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.88119.88119.88
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.200.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.200.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.21$7.61$9.13
Upside / Downside-53.76%-43.32%-32.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)96.2995.3394.3793.4392.5091.5794.32
Payout Ratio62.31%67.85%73.39%78.92%84.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.0064.6869.2673.7478.1282.4187.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.14%8.14%8.14%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)59.2159.8160.41
Year 2 PV (M)58.0359.2260.43
Year 3 PV (M)56.5658.3160.09
Year 4 PV (M)54.8557.1359.47
Year 5 PV (M)52.9755.7358.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,090.811,147.611,206.75
Equity Value (M)1,372.431,437.801,505.75
Shares Outstanding (M)119.88119.88119.88
Fair Value$11.45$11.99$12.56
Upside / Downside-14.75%-10.69%-6.47%

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