Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$92.73 - $261.44$144.42
Multi-Stage$64.44 - $70.30$67.32
Blended Fair Value$105.87
Current Price$73.65
Upside43.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%13.35%1.751.501.371.251.000.870.750.620.500.50
YoY Growth--16.67%9.09%10.00%25.00%14.29%16.67%20.00%25.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.09%1.17%1.18%1.27%2.09%1.87%1.42%1.40%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)755.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.1094.4456.66
Cash Retained (M)355.51355.51355.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.10-94.44-56.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.41261.07298.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.14200.14200.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.301.49
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.301.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.023.303.49
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$92.73$144.42$261.44
Upside / Downside25.91%96.09%254.97%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)755.51804.62856.92912.62971.941,035.111,066.17
Payout Ratio52.94%60.36%67.77%75.18%82.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)400.00485.63580.70686.08802.71931.60986.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.94%8.94%8.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)441.61445.80449.98
Year 2 PV (M)480.20489.34498.58
Year 3 PV (M)515.91530.72545.81
Year 4 PV (M)548.89570.00591.72
Year 5 PV (M)579.28607.26636.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,331.2210,830.2211,348.32
Equity Value (M)12,897.1213,473.3514,070.72
Shares Outstanding (M)200.14200.14200.14
Fair Value$64.44$67.32$70.30
Upside / Downside-12.50%-8.60%-4.54%

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