Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

AIC Inc. (3693.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.13 - $163.54$138.98
Multi-Stage$185.83 - $203.40$194.45
Blended Fair Value$166.71
Current Price$238.00
Upside-29.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%8.745.241.310.610.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--66.67%300.00%114.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.88%1.44%1.03%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)763.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)472.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)290.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)152.7095.4457.26
Cash Retained (M)290.61290.61290.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-152.70-95.44-57.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)137.91195.17233.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.0544.0544.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.134.435.30
LTM Dividend per Share10.7410.7410.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.134.435.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.8715.1716.03
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$115.13$138.98$163.54
Upside / Downside-51.63%-41.61%-31.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)763.50755.87748.31740.83733.42726.08747.87
Payout Ratio61.94%67.55%73.16%78.78%84.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)472.90510.59547.48583.59618.91653.48691.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.80%9.80%9.80%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)460.31465.01469.70
Year 2 PV (M)444.96454.09463.31
Year 3 PV (M)427.59440.82454.31
Year 4 PV (M)408.82425.76443.23
Year 5 PV (M)389.14409.40430.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,055.116,370.416,698.72
Equity Value (M)8,185.938,565.498,959.77
Shares Outstanding (M)44.0544.0544.05
Fair Value$185.83$194.45$203.40
Upside / Downside-21.92%-18.30%-14.54%

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