Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine Company Limited (3613.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.67 - $10.78$8.52
Multi-Stage$10.47 - $11.48$10.96
Blended Fair Value$9.74
Current Price$8.67
Upside12.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-19.06%15.32%0.330.330.530.240.230.950.190.160.130.10
YoY Growth--0.00%-37.74%120.83%4.34%-75.79%400.00%18.75%23.08%30.00%26.07%
Dividend Yield--3.87%3.59%3.92%2.21%2.17%8.33%1.30%1.09%1.25%1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)515.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)292.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)222.38
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)103.0764.4238.65
Cash Retained (M)222.38222.38222.38
(-) Cash Required (M)-103.07-64.42-38.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)119.30157.96183.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)837.10837.10837.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.350.350.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Fair Value$6.67$8.52$10.78
Upside / Downside-23.03%-1.71%24.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)515.36522.49529.71537.04544.46551.99568.55
Payout Ratio56.85%63.48%70.11%76.74%83.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)292.99331.68371.38412.12453.92496.79525.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.79%7.79%7.79%
Growth Rate0.38%1.38%2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)304.67307.70310.74
Year 2 PV (M)313.36319.63325.97
Year 3 PV (M)319.42329.06338.89
Year 4 PV (M)323.16336.23349.70
Year 5 PV (M)324.88341.39358.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,177.937,542.657,922.05
Equity Value (M)8,763.429,176.679,605.91
Shares Outstanding (M)837.10837.10837.10
Fair Value$10.47$10.96$11.48
Upside / Downside20.75%26.44%32.36%

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