Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Modern Dental Group Limited (3600.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.92 - $88.40$42.54
Multi-Stage$16.84 - $18.40$17.61
Blended Fair Value$30.08
Current Price$4.26
Upside605.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS29.52%26.76%0.170.100.080.200.020.050.040.040.020.03
YoY Growth--62.23%27.83%-58.46%780.92%-51.97%10.21%17.65%61.90%-19.13%73.11%
Dividend Yield--4.09%2.47%3.40%3.57%1.50%3.03%3.21%1.70%0.78%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)886.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)582.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)177.23110.7766.46
Cash Retained (M)582.09582.09582.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-177.23-110.77-66.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)404.86471.32515.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)944.33944.33944.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.500.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.750.820.87
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.92$42.54$88.40
Upside / Downside508.46%898.63%1,975.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)886.15943.751,005.091,070.421,140.001,214.101,250.53
Payout Ratio34.31%45.45%56.59%67.73%78.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.06428.94568.76724.95899.041,092.691,156.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)391.42395.13398.84
Year 2 PV (M)473.62482.64491.75
Year 3 PV (M)550.88566.70582.81
Year 4 PV (M)623.42647.39672.05
Year 5 PV (M)691.44724.83759.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,175.3213,811.6914,472.42
Equity Value (M)15,906.1016,628.3917,377.38
Shares Outstanding (M)944.33944.33944.33
Fair Value$16.84$17.61$18.40
Upside / Downside295.40%313.35%331.97%

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