Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Eclat Forever Machinery Co., Ltd. (3485.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,117.87 - $2,495.21$2,338.37
Multi-Stage$1,526.89 - $1,675.08$1,599.61
Blended Fair Value$1,968.99
Current Price$70.30
Upside2,700.84%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.19%0.00%4.074.592.651.621.331.180.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---11.24%73.33%63.48%21.76%13.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.79%9.86%6.70%4.71%4.12%5.79%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)443.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)306.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)137.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)88.6355.3933.24
Cash Retained (M)137.07137.07137.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-88.63-55.39-33.24
(=) Excess Retained (M)48.4481.68103.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.3235.3235.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.372.312.94
LTM Dividend per Share8.678.678.67
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.372.312.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend10.0410.9811.61
WACC / Discount Rate1.24%1.24%1.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2,117.87$2,338.37$2,495.21
Upside / Downside2,912.61%3,226.28%3,449.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)443.14471.95502.62535.29570.09607.14625.36
Payout Ratio69.07%73.25%77.44%81.63%85.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)306.07345.72389.24436.95489.21546.43578.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.24%1.24%1.24%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)338.27341.47344.68
Year 2 PV (M)372.63379.73386.89
Year 3 PV (M)409.28421.03433.00
Year 4 PV (M)448.35465.60483.33
Year 5 PV (M)489.99513.66538.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)51,870.8054,376.1756,977.44
Equity Value (M)53,929.3156,497.6559,163.57
Shares Outstanding (M)35.3235.3235.32
Fair Value$1,526.89$1,599.61$1,675.08
Upside / Downside2,071.96%2,175.40%2,282.77%

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