Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Riyadh Cement Company (3092.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.85 - $310.38$163.36
Multi-Stage$93.98 - $102.86$98.34
Blended Fair Value$130.85
Current Price$32.12
Upside307.38%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS13.08%0.00%1.761.551.621.881.940.950.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--13.19%-4.48%-13.76%-3.06%104.52%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.45%4.54%5.24%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)487.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)258.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)228.72
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.5060.9436.56
Cash Retained (M)228.72228.72228.72
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.50-60.94-36.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)131.22167.78192.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.091.401.60
LTM Dividend per Share2.162.162.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.091.401.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.253.553.76
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Fair Value$102.85$163.36$310.38
Upside / Downside220.22%408.59%866.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)487.50511.16535.96561.97589.24617.83636.37
Payout Ratio53.08%60.47%67.85%75.23%82.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)258.78309.08363.65422.79486.81556.05588.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate3.85%4.85%5.85%
Year 1 PV (M)285.75288.50291.25
Year 2 PV (M)310.82316.83322.90
Year 3 PV (M)334.08343.83353.76
Year 4 PV (M)355.63369.53383.83
Year 5 PV (M)375.55393.98413.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,616.3410,088.3210,578.66
Equity Value (M)11,278.1611,800.9812,343.52
Shares Outstanding (M)120.00120.00120.00
Fair Value$93.98$98.34$102.86
Upside / Downside192.60%206.17%220.25%

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