Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Yamama Saudi Cement Company (3020.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$88.99 - $410.16$201.11
Multi-Stage$62.51 - $68.47$65.43
Blended Fair Value$133.27
Current Price$31.74
Upside319.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.40%-12.35%0.991.000.000.010.490.030.000.251.462.95
YoY Growth---1.48%43,068.53%-67.10%-98.54%1,785.27%0.00%-100.00%-82.61%-50.54%-20.11%
Dividend Yield--2.48%3.04%0.01%0.02%1.46%0.14%0.00%1.59%8.00%10.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)422.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)214.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)207.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)84.4152.7631.66
Cash Retained (M)207.98207.98207.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-84.41-52.76-31.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.57155.23176.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
LTM Dividend per Share1.061.061.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.610.770.87
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.671.821.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Fair Value$88.99$201.11$410.16
Upside / Downside180.38%533.62%1,192.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)422.07444.54468.21493.13519.39547.04563.45
Payout Ratio50.72%58.58%66.43%74.29%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)214.09260.40311.05366.34426.65492.33521.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate4.32%5.32%6.32%
Year 1 PV (M)242.69245.02247.35
Year 2 PV (M)270.17275.38280.63
Year 3 PV (M)296.56305.17313.95
Year 4 PV (M)321.89334.41347.29
Year 5 PV (M)346.18363.09380.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,175.1811,721.1412,288.25
Equity Value (M)12,652.6713,244.2113,858.12
Shares Outstanding (M)202.41202.41202.41
Fair Value$62.51$65.43$68.47
Upside / Downside96.94%106.15%115.71%

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