Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co., Ltd. (301004.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaging & ContainersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$115.99 - $313.21$178.33
Multi-Stage$81.79 - $89.21$85.43
Blended Fair Value$131.88
Current Price$61.76
Upside113.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS374.79%0.00%1.800.900.260.170.000.000.010.020.000.00
YoY Growth--99.37%251.42%50.14%0.00%-100.00%-90.07%-52.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.41%1.82%1.16%1.15%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)569.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)312.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)113.8971.1842.71
Cash Retained (M)256.75256.75256.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-113.89-71.18-42.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.86185.57214.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)116.79116.79116.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.221.591.83
LTM Dividend per Share2.682.682.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.221.591.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.904.274.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$115.99$178.33$313.21
Upside / Downside87.81%188.74%407.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)569.47606.48645.90687.89732.60780.22803.62
Payout Ratio54.91%61.93%68.95%75.97%82.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)312.72375.60445.34522.56607.93702.20743.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.05%9.05%9.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)341.20344.44347.67
Year 2 PV (M)367.50374.50381.57
Year 3 PV (M)391.73402.98414.44
Year 4 PV (M)414.00429.92446.29
Year 5 PV (M)434.40455.38477.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,603.487,970.738,352.03
Equity Value (M)9,552.309,977.9410,419.16
Shares Outstanding (M)116.79116.79116.79
Fair Value$81.79$85.43$89.21
Upside / Downside32.43%38.33%44.45%

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