DDM Analysis: 3010.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.60 - $12.12	$10.34
Multi-Stage	$23.46 - $25.82	$24.62
Blended Fair Value	$17.48
Current Price	$22.02
Upside	-20.62%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.55%	-7.33%	1.46	1.83	2.60	2.50	2.03	1.75	1.04	5.00	4.50	5.28
YoY Growth	-	-	-20.32%	-29.43%	4.00%	23.28%	15.80%	68.10%	-79.16%	11.11%	-14.78%	68.76%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.37%	5.78%	7.16%	5.84%	4.66%	7.01%	4.13%	14.28%	11.84%	11.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	140.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	129.32
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11.50

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	28.16	17.60	10.56
Cash Retained (M)	11.50	11.50	11.50
(-) Cash Required (M)	-28.16	-17.60	-10.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-16.67	-6.10	0.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	100.00	100.00	100.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.17	-0.06	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	1.29	1.29	1.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.17	-0.06	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.13	1.23	1.30
WACC / Discount Rate	6.82%	6.82%	6.82%
Growth Rate	-5.55%	-4.55%	-3.55%
Fair Value	$8.60	$10.34	$12.12
Upside / Downside	-60.94%	-53.02%	-44.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	140.82	134.42	128.30	122.47	116.90	111.58	114.93
Payout Ratio	91.83%	91.47%	91.10%	90.73%	90.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	129.32	122.95	116.89	111.12	105.64	100.42	106.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.82%	6.82%	6.82%
Growth Rate	-5.55%	-4.55%	-3.55%
Year 1 PV (M)	113.89	115.10	116.30
Year 2 PV (M)	100.30	102.43	104.59
Year 3 PV (M)	88.33	91.16	94.06
Year 4 PV (M)	77.78	81.13	84.58
Year 5 PV (M)	68.50	72.20	76.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,896.96	1,999.53	2,106.49
Equity Value (M)	2,345.75	2,461.55	2,582.08
Shares Outstanding (M)	100.00	100.00	100.00
Fair Value	$23.46	$24.62	$25.82
Upside / Downside	6.53%	11.79%	17.26%

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Financial Statements

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Arabian Cement Company (3010.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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