Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

CECEP Environmental Protection Equipment Co.,Ltd. (300140.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.14 - $34.85$14.09
Multi-Stage$5.24 - $5.71$5.47
Blended Fair Value$9.78
Current Price$6.05
Upside61.67%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS55.61%51.30%0.250.170.180.020.030.030.010.010.000.01
YoY Growth--43.89%-1.87%889.72%-47.90%25.34%387.13%-40.59%138.09%-60.02%150.11%
Dividend Yield--4.23%2.52%2.34%0.27%0.50%0.24%0.05%0.06%0.02%0.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)824.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)567.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)256.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.86103.0461.82
Cash Retained (M)256.85256.85256.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.86-103.04-61.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.99153.81195.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,099.493,099.493,099.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.14$14.09$34.85
Upside / Downside34.49%132.92%476.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)824.31877.89934.96995.731,060.451,129.381,163.26
Payout Ratio68.84%73.07%77.30%81.54%85.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)567.46641.50722.76811.88909.531,016.441,076.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.26%8.26%8.26%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)587.00592.56598.13
Year 2 PV (M)605.17616.69628.33
Year 3 PV (M)622.03639.89658.08
Year 4 PV (M)637.64662.16687.39
Year 5 PV (M)652.05683.55716.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,126.1613,760.1614,418.42
Equity Value (M)16,230.0516,955.0117,706.59
Shares Outstanding (M)3,099.493,099.493,099.49
Fair Value$5.24$5.47$5.71
Upside / Downside-13.45%-9.58%-5.57%

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