Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Evergreen Marine Corporation (Taiwan) Ltd. (2603.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,511.58 - $8,336.39$7,812.42
Multi-Stage$1,258.87 - $1,375.99$1,316.36
Blended Fair Value$4,564.39
Current Price$179.00
Upside2,449.94%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%9.9068.4243.996.080.000.000.370.000.000.16
YoY Growth---85.53%55.56%623.91%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.49%40.85%27.75%1.80%0.00%0.00%1.26%0.00%0.00%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)90,761.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70,363.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)20,397.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18,152.2611,345.166,807.10
Cash Retained (M)20,397.3920,397.3920,397.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-18,152.26-11,345.16-6,807.10
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,245.139,052.2313,590.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.222,165.222,165.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.044.186.28
LTM Dividend per Share32.5032.5032.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.044.186.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend33.5336.6838.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$3,511.58$7,812.42$8,336.39
Upside / Downside1,861.78%4,264.48%4,557.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)90,761.2996,660.77102,943.72109,635.06116,761.34124,350.83128,081.35
Payout Ratio77.53%80.02%82.52%85.01%87.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70,363.9077,348.9884,944.8393,201.35102,172.32111,915.75118,475.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)71,941.1472,623.0573,304.95
Year 2 PV (M)73,482.2574,881.8876,294.71
Year 3 PV (M)74,987.7777,140.3979,333.83
Year 4 PV (M)76,458.2279,398.5982,422.96
Year 5 PV (M)77,894.1581,656.4785,562.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,350,963.322,464,515.732,582,414.06
Equity Value (M)2,725,726.862,850,216.112,979,333.30
Shares Outstanding (M)2,165.222,165.222,165.22
Fair Value$1,258.87$1,316.36$1,375.99
Upside / Downside603.28%635.40%668.71%

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