Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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AviChina Industry & Technology Company Limited (2357.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.95 - $25.93$16.14
Multi-Stage$8.01 - $8.74$8.37
Blended Fair Value$12.26
Current Price$4.04
Upside203.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS68.51%36.98%0.320.120.130.210.100.020.020.010.010.01
YoY Growth--159.77%-8.84%-35.36%107.37%328.06%4.68%50.00%8.98%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--8.78%4.04%4.34%4.74%2.21%0.75%0.52%0.42%0.29%0.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,122.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,086.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,036.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)824.40515.25309.15
Cash Retained (M)2,036.012,036.012,036.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-824.40-515.25-309.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,211.611,520.761,726.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.190.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.48
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.95$16.14$25.93
Upside / Downside171.00%299.63%541.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,122.014,389.944,675.294,979.185,302.835,647.515,816.94
Payout Ratio50.61%58.49%66.36%74.24%82.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,086.002,567.463,102.703,696.674,354.755,082.765,380.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.48%9.48%9.48%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,323.132,345.152,367.17
Year 2 PV (M)2,540.262,588.642,637.48
Year 3 PV (M)2,738.532,817.142,897.25
Year 4 PV (M)2,919.033,031.293,146.75
Year 5 PV (M)3,082.793,231.693,386.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,363.8652,796.4555,322.15
Equity Value (M)63,967.5966,810.3669,757.08
Shares Outstanding (M)7,984.437,984.437,984.43
Fair Value$8.01$8.37$8.74
Upside / Downside98.31%107.12%116.25%

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