DDM Analysis: 2319.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$22.33 - $56.80	$33.70
Multi-Stage	$21.57 - $23.54	$22.54
Blended Fair Value	$28.12
Current Price	$14.69
Upside	91.41%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	22.10%	17.27%	0.49	0.40	0.38	0.27	0.18	0.18	0.12	0.09	0.14	0.15
YoY Growth	-	-	21.18%	5.40%	40.68%	51.56%	-0.33%	46.84%	40.02%	-37.61%	-5.54%	49.62%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.97%	2.24%	1.22%	0.76%	0.46%	0.64%	0.57%	0.45%	1.05%	1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,938.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3,915.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)	23.17

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	787.75	492.34	295.41
Cash Retained (M)	23.17	23.17	23.17
(-) Cash Required (M)	-787.75	-492.34	-295.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-764.59	-469.18	-272.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,935.18	3,935.18	3,935.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	1.00	1.00	1.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.80	0.88	0.93
WACC / Discount Rate	7.61%	7.61%	7.61%
Growth Rate	3.89%	4.89%	5.89%
Fair Value	$22.33	$33.70	$56.80
Upside / Downside	51.98%	129.39%	286.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,938.75	4,131.22	4,333.08	4,544.82	4,766.90	4,999.83	5,149.82
Payout Ratio	99.41%	97.53%	95.65%	93.76%	91.88%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3,915.59	4,029.15	4,144.47	4,261.44	4,379.94	4,499.84	4,763.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.61%	7.61%	7.61%
Growth Rate	3.89%	4.89%	5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,708.44	3,744.13	3,779.83
Year 2 PV (M)	3,510.94	3,578.86	3,647.42
Year 3 PV (M)	3,322.67	3,419.55	3,518.29
Year 4 PV (M)	3,143.23	3,266.02	3,392.36
Year 5 PV (M)	2,972.23	3,118.07	3,269.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	68,216.70	71,563.75	75,040.92
Equity Value (M)	84,874.21	88,690.38	92,648.39
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,935.18	3,935.18	3,935.18
Fair Value	$21.57	$22.54	$23.54
Upside / Downside	46.82%	53.42%	60.27%

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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited (2319.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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