Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shining Victory Motor Electronic Co., Ltd. (2248.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.58 - $104.88$87.62
Multi-Stage$113.15 - $124.34$118.64
Blended Fair Value$103.13
Current Price$47.85
Upside115.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.57%0.00%0.910.790.690.000.570.890.830.001.500.00
YoY Growth--14.96%14.64%0.00%-100.00%-35.48%7.45%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.38%2.23%2.41%0.00%2.56%2.36%1.70%0.00%2.77%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)327.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.1250.0830.05
Cash Retained (M)327.15327.15327.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.12-50.08-30.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)247.03277.07297.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)43.0243.0243.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.746.446.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.711.711.71
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.746.446.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.458.158.61
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate-1.43%-0.43%0.57%
Fair Value$71.58$87.62$104.88
Upside / Downside49.58%83.11%119.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.62398.91397.21395.52393.83392.15403.91
Payout Ratio18.34%32.67%47.00%61.34%75.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.47130.33186.71242.59298.00352.93373.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.83%8.83%8.83%
Growth Rate-1.43%-0.43%0.57%
Year 1 PV (M)118.55119.75120.96
Year 2 PV (M)154.48157.63160.81
Year 3 PV (M)182.57188.19193.91
Year 4 PV (M)204.00212.40221.07
Year 5 PV (M)219.76231.14242.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,987.894,194.324,409.21
Equity Value (M)4,867.265,103.435,348.94
Shares Outstanding (M)43.0243.0243.02
Fair Value$113.15$118.64$124.34
Upside / Downside136.46%147.93%159.86%

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