DDM Analysis: 2204.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$808.37 - $1,128.51	$968.15
Multi-Stage	$1,346.47 - $1,475.98	$1,409.98
Blended Fair Value	$1,189.06
Current Price	$3,105.00
Upside	-61.70%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-7.32%	-5.20%	59.89	51.58	51.56	51.55	87.56	87.59	87.64	117.79	102.08	102.15
YoY Growth	-	-	16.11%	0.03%	0.02%	-41.13%	-0.03%	-0.06%	-25.59%	15.38%	-0.07%	0.02%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.92%	1.58%	1.68%	1.64%	2.31%	2.17%	2.14%	2.45%	2.01%	2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	780.75
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	401.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)	379.42

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	156.15	97.59	58.56
Cash Retained (M)	379.42	379.42	379.42
(-) Cash Required (M)	-156.15	-97.59	-58.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)	223.27	281.83	320.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	5.79	5.79	5.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	38.56	48.68	55.42
LTM Dividend per Share	69.31	69.31	69.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share	38.56	48.68	55.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend	107.88	117.99	124.73
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	-3.10%	-2.10%	-1.10%
Fair Value	$808.37	$968.15	$1,128.51
Upside / Downside	-73.97%	-68.82%	-63.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	780.75	764.38	748.35	732.66	717.29	702.25	723.32
Payout Ratio	51.40%	59.12%	66.84%	74.56%	82.28%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	401.33	451.92	500.21	546.28	590.19	632.03	669.07

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.83%	9.83%	9.83%
Growth Rate	-3.10%	-2.10%	-1.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	407.25	411.45	415.66
Year 2 PV (M)	406.22	414.64	423.16
Year 3 PV (M)	399.78	412.28	425.05
Year 4 PV (M)	389.23	405.54	422.37
Year 5 PV (M)	375.62	395.40	416.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,817.90	6,124.35	6,443.58
Equity Value (M)	7,795.99	8,163.68	8,545.82
Shares Outstanding (M)	5.79	5.79	5.79
Fair Value	$1,346.47	$1,409.98	$1,475.98
Upside / Downside	-56.64%	-54.59%	-52.46%

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Nakamuraya Co., Ltd. (2204.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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