Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Shanghai Chicmax Cosmetic Co., Ltd. (2145.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Household & Personal ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$27.99 - $39.81$33.81
Multi-Stage$45.57 - $49.87$47.68
Blended Fair Value$40.74
Current Price$74.80
Upside-45.53%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.310.450.500.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--191.51%-10.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.01%1.85%1.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,665.50
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,069.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)595.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)333.10208.19124.91
Cash Retained (M)595.51595.51595.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-333.10-208.19-124.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)262.41387.32470.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
LTM Dividend per Share2.692.692.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.660.971.18
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.353.663.87
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$27.99$33.81$39.81
Upside / Downside-62.58%-54.80%-46.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,665.501,648.841,632.361,616.031,599.871,583.871,631.39
Payout Ratio64.24%69.40%74.55%79.70%84.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,069.991,144.231,216.871,287.941,357.471,425.491,509.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.72%9.72%9.72%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,032.291,042.831,053.36
Year 2 PV (M)990.441,010.751,031.28
Year 3 PV (M)945.74974.991,004.83
Year 4 PV (M)899.29936.56974.98
Year 5 PV (M)851.96896.33942.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,414.3814,112.9014,840.22
Equity Value (M)18,134.1018,974.3519,847.18
Shares Outstanding (M)397.98397.98397.98
Fair Value$45.57$47.68$49.87
Upside / Downside-39.08%-36.26%-33.33%

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