Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China Kepei Education Group Limited (1890.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.77 - $8.11$6.22
Multi-Stage$18.73 - $20.69$19.69
Blended Fair Value$12.96
Current Price$1.25
Upside936.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%6.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)801.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)670.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)160.32100.2060.12
Cash Retained (M)670.97670.97670.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-160.32-100.20-60.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)510.65570.77610.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.250.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.320.350.37
WACC / Discount Rate4.55%4.55%4.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.77$6.22$8.11
Upside / Downside281.70%397.79%548.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)801.58793.57785.63777.78770.00762.30785.17
Payout Ratio16.29%31.04%45.78%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.62246.29359.64470.69579.49686.07726.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.55%4.55%4.55%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)233.20235.58237.96
Year 2 PV (M)322.43329.04335.72
Year 3 PV (M)399.56411.92424.53
Year 4 PV (M)465.78485.08504.98
Year 5 PV (M)522.13549.32577.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,745.7837,607.1439,545.25
Equity Value (M)37,688.8839,618.0941,626.07
Shares Outstanding (M)2,012.032,012.032,012.03
Fair Value$18.73$19.69$20.69
Upside / Downside1,398.54%1,475.25%1,555.09%

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