DDM Analysis: 1866.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$316.23 - $434.43	$407.13
Multi-Stage	$72.43 - $79.35	$75.82
Blended Fair Value	$241.48
Current Price	$5.01
Upside	4,719.89%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	19.53%	17.09%	0.24	0.26	0.20	0.09	0.08	0.10	0.07	0.03	0.07	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-9.38%	31.76%	109.49%	23.98%	-21.33%	39.63%	113.32%	-51.81%	38.33%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.11%	8.27%	5.50%	2.17%	3.61%	4.51%	3.07%	1.13%	3.04%	1.85%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,699.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	611.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,088.01

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	539.89	337.43	202.46
Cash Retained (M)	2,088.01	2,088.01	2,088.01
(-) Cash Required (M)	-539.89	-337.43	-202.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,548.13	1,750.58	1,885.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,235.74	1,235.74	1,235.74
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.25	1.42	1.53
LTM Dividend per Share	0.49	0.49	0.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.25	1.42	1.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.75	1.91	2.02
WACC / Discount Rate	6.08%	6.08%	6.08%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$316.23	$407.13	$434.43
Upside / Downside	6,211.93%	8,026.31%	8,571.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,699.43	2,874.89	3,061.76	3,260.77	3,472.72	3,698.45	3,809.41
Payout Ratio	22.65%	36.12%	49.59%	63.06%	76.53%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	611.42	1,038.41	1,518.32	2,056.24	2,657.67	3,328.61	3,523.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.08%	6.08%	6.08%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	969.67	978.86	988.05
Year 2 PV (M)	1,323.97	1,349.19	1,374.64
Year 3 PV (M)	1,674.35	1,722.41	1,771.39
Year 4 PV (M)	2,020.83	2,098.55	2,178.48
Year 5 PV (M)	2,363.45	2,477.61	2,596.14
PV of Terminal Value (M)	81,153.43	85,073.18	89,142.93
Equity Value (M)	89,505.71	93,699.79	98,051.63
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,235.74	1,235.74	1,235.74
Fair Value	$72.43	$75.82	$79.35
Upside / Downside	1,345.72%	1,413.47%	1,483.76%

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6383.T	Daifuku Co., Ltd.	1.64%	$80.66	36.37%
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002266.SZ	Zhefu Holding Group Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.07	37.41%
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300121.SZ	Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.21	53.84%
603013.SS	YAPP Automotive Systems Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.40	37.85%
603081.SS	Zhejiang Dafeng Industry Co., Ltd	1.63%	$0.23	92.61%
603194.SS	Zhejiang E-P Equipment Co Ltd	1.63%	$0.64	29.27%
603221.SS	Elegant Home-Tech Co., Ltd.	1.63%	$0.21	78.59%
BEI.DE	Beiersdorf AG	1.63%	$1.52	25.19%
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IVS.MI	IVS Group S.A.	1.63%	$0.12	62.72%
LDO.MI	Leonardo S.p.A.	1.63%	$0.84	33.82%
MEOH	Methanex Corporation	1.63%	$0.67	24.08%
PARKIN.AE	Parkin Company PJSC	1.63%	$0.09	49.98%
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300206.SZ	Edan Instruments, Inc.	1.62%	$0.21	48.61%
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605050.SS	Friend Co.,Ltd.	1.62%	$0.22	30.01%
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Financial Statements

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Ticker

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Sector

China XLX Fertiliser Ltd. (1866.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener